Tourism in the Time of Covid19

When we stopped for breakfast on the first morning of our long-weekend trip to the Niagara area of New York State I didn’t think much about using the drive-through window at the fast food place. We’d been doing that occasionally at the place near our home. No big deal. However, if someone needs to use the bathroom and the interior of the store has signs that say “Employees Only” then there might be a problem. So, as we moved on down the road, feeling a little uncomfortable, I started thinking about the logic of that inconvenience.

At the rest area just south of Watertown (our next necessary stop) the bathrooms were open and only occupied by a couple of people. It was an exceptionally clean place and a couple of attendants were hanging around making sure it stayed that way. When an older woman came into the building without a mask on her face one of the attendants told her to go back to her car and get the face covering or go somewhere else. This order by the janitor was not delivered in a kind or reasonable way. The woman left and when I left the building, I saw her hustling back to the rest room wearing a mask that didn’t hide her discomfort or embarrassment.

Later in the day we stopped at a burger joint near the town where we lived for many years. The place was remarkably busy and, at first, didn’t seem that much different from past visits. We still approached the counter (though we were masked-up and standing on the appropriate floor markings) placed our order and paid. But when our order came the usual condiments were missing. When I asked the counter person for some ketchup and pickles, I was handed little ketchup packets and a tiny cup of their usual pickles. In the past the customer could spoon pickles from a big tub and squirt ketchup into little cups. How many people catch a virus like Covid19 from a pickle jar? Can a virus even live in pickle brine?

But the most noticeable difference in our visit to the burger place was an almost visible tension in the customers. This place, in the recent past, was always relaxed, full of pleasant conversation and laughter. The employees had always been noted for loud and friendly good service. But now, in the time of Covid19, the place was sullenly quiet. Service was efficient but not friendly. People seemed more concerned about following the new rules than about enjoying some good food in a pleasant lake-side atmosphere.

We traveled on. At our destination motel we were checked in at the Plexiglas shrouded counter. We got our instructions on how the free hot breakfast would be handled and filled out the appropriate breakfast form. We were instructed on procedures for making an appointment to use the pool or fitness room. We were instructed on elevator protocols, housekeeping limitations and the availability of sanitizers. Finally, we got to our room on the fourth floor. It was spotless, smelled like Lysol, and was littered with little signs saying, “This surface has been sanitized in accordance with recommendations from the NY Department of Health and the CDC.” There was even one of those signs on the TV remote and mini-fridge handle. 

When I went online (on my un-sanitized laptop) I looked up the State regulations for Hotel/Motel/B&B operations. They are many. Page after page of bureaucratic minutiae instruct these establishments in every facet of their business. My bet is that the good places, the ones that are already doing a good job, will continue to do a good job. The cheap, less than stellar operations will still do a shoddy, corner-cutting kind of cleaning, just as they had in years past. But they’d better be careful. On every set of instructions from the State is a plea to anyone who observes violations (or violators) to report these individuals and establishments to the appropriate authorities. Fines, jail terms, severe scolding are probably all in the folio of punishments available to the State in its enforcement efforts, though they are not spelled out.

Since we were in a tourist area, we wanted to do a few touristy things. We planned a trip to see the US side of Niagara Falls (can’t cross over to Canada due to Covid19), visit the Buffalo Zoo,visit Old Fort Niagara and, most importantly, visit a winery or two.

To do a zoo visit we needed to go online and make a reservation. Then, when we arrived, we had to have our temperature taken. Once we got through the entry process, we were encouraged to follow social distancing rules, keep our masks on, follow the approved visitation path, avoid touching the glass, railings, signs, and other people. It was fine. But again, people seemed awfully tense. No one seemed to be enjoying the experience, not even the little kids who usually are thrilled to see the animals. We made the circuit and headed off on a calming ride in the countryside. By the way, that not so hot visit to the zoo cost thirty-six bucks including parking.

The next day we drove up to Old Fort Niagara. There was no reservation required and when we arrived the place was not too busy. Before we could enter, we were reminded of the Covid19 rules about masks and distance. At various stops along the walking tour of the fort we were asked to wait before going into buildings. Capacity limits have been reduced to twenty-five percent of the usual allowances. Eventually, as more folks entered the place, little traffic jams occurred, and it got harder to maintain the six-foot spacing. This fort is not a small place, but the current rules make it feel crowded, even at twenty-five percent capacity. And once again, people seemed to be uncomfortable, slightly edgy, and lacking patience. A beautiful day, at a beautiful location, was not as fine an experience as it could have been.

Over the weekend we visited three wineries. Two required reservations. Since a wine tasting room is basically a bar the NY government insists that a food purchase be made, or no alcohol will be served. Most small wineries have no kitchen facilities. When they have events requiring food, they bring in a food truck or a caterer. To meet the NY requirement, they now sell little packs of snack food. Airline size bags of pretzels or chips cost a dollar. The wineries were the most relaxed places we visited. They were friendlier as well, friendlier than restaurants and tourist attractions and hotels. The wine might have something to do with that, but I’m not sure. My wife would know better than me.

So friends, if you go out touring in time of Covid19 be sure to prepare carefully, follow the rules, avoid riling folks up, bring extra masks and sanitizer, and, if you decide to break a rule or two, watch out for snitches. As for us, we think we’ll limit our traveling to family visits. They’re more relaxed and welcoming, have fewer rules posted in their houses, and are less likely to turn us in to the Covid19 cops.

Travel safely and be good to your new neighbors, wherever you find them. And have a fine day.

 

Quarantine - Covid19

  

My wife just got back from spending time helping our daughter in Maryland. She flew from Dulles Airport, just outside of Washington, to Ogdensburg. Maryland is on NY State’s list of restricted areas due to high numbers of infected folks. I’m not going to give you a bunch of statistics. Let’s just say that the numbers are not as bad as NY City but they’re worse than Franklin County. Before she got on the plane yesterday, she had filled out a required form online, providing information on her health, where she will be quarantining, and other data having to do with demographics. This form was also printed out and dropped into a little box in the terminal upon her arrival in Ogdensburg.

Then, tonight at dinner time, she got a call from the NY State Department of Health contact tracer employee. Brittany was her name, I think. Brittany asked about my wife’s health today. Then she asked every other question that my wife had answered on the online form. Brittany was just doing her job, I suppose, but why was this necessary? My wife is too nice a person to give a “Government Official” a little bit of feedback. If I had been the returning traveler, I might have asked a few questions. Why do you need all this demographic information again when you already have it? Why do you need a medical history, with questions that have nothing at all to do with the current virus, questions I already answered online yesterday? Why do you need to know my race, something that has absolutely nothing to do with whether I have the virus or not? And what is the point of asking someone if they have dementia? Is a person with dementia going to give a reliable answer to that question? This whole questioning process is intrusive and patently unnecessary.

It seems to me that there are only a few questions that should be asked. What’s your name, address, and phone number? Do you understand what quarantine means? Do you have any of the following virus symptoms? That’s it. That is all they need to know. If they want to call again and ask if there has been any contact with other folks, then I suppose that would be okay. But someone is going to call, email or text my wife everyday for fourteen days. She is required to respond, or a contact tracing official will come to our house to make sure the rules are being obeyed.

Now, I understand that this is a real disease with the possibility of serious consequences, especially to a certain age group. We happen to belong to that age group. But adding a whole level of new bureaucracy to collect mostly useless information that doesn’t have anything to do with tracking infected contacts is just one more example of government excess. And good old New York State is no stranger to government excess.

Well, my wife, being a good citizen and a good neighbor, will put up with this horse-manure. As I said, she’s much nicer than I am. So, she’ll be out of touch with you folks for a couple more weeks. She’s just trying to be sure you all have a nice day.

 

 

Facts and Figures

Facts and Figures

Statistics are not something I usually worry about. But with this Covid-19 crisis going on there are pages and pages of numbers and graphs and models being shown all over the place; internet news sources, social media pages, newspapers, regular network TV and cable TV. I’ve even seen cartoons alluding to facts and figures. And I guess it’s good that all this information is so readily available. However, given the American tendency to argue about everything, I wonder if there’s any value in spreading all these numbers around. It’s especially worrisome if there are conflicts in various sets of research results or predictions based on different extrapolated models. (Extrapolated models – two words I’ve never used and barely understand)

We Americans like to think we’re pretty smart. And, to borrow a phrase I saw in an article yesterday, we think because we’ve attended the University of Google we know lots and lots of stuff about nearly everything. Supposedly, according to Google, we’re the best-informed population to ever squat in any place on this planet. A friend of mine recently posted a longish article describing what real research looks like. It was all I could do to finish the thing. But I did, and I decided then and there that I would stick to a more pedestrian layman’s form of research. Real research is hard work. Checking multiple sources, finding original sources, weighting the bias in a source, looking up words to see if they mean what they seem to mean, reading footnotes (who the hell reads those things?) constitute hard mental labor.

So, I skim the news, pay close attention to visual aids, read columns from really smart people who get the information down to my non-expert level while throwing in some good jokes, and then formulate my opinions (also known as brilliant observations) from all of that. Then I run my mouth as if I’ve done months and months of research. Just kidding.

And that brings me back to data analysis. The Corona Virus numbers are confusing. Depending on the source, we are either headed for complete extinction or we’re well on our way to beating the pants off this thing. Just figuring out how each study arrives at the little lines on the graph is a daunting task. Some studies include something they call “unreported cases” or “suspected cases.” Apparently, they use some fancy algorithm (what the heck is an algorithm, by the way?) to get the numbers of these cases. This is what statisticians do. They make informed guesses. Which is suspiciously like weather forecasters, and we know how often they’re right. But the actual facts in their charts and graphs don’t always match up with each other. A lot of people have been killed by this virus. But some people doing the counting are saying a person died from the virus even if that person already was very sick from lung cancer or heart disease or some other awful ailment. And some of those who died “from the virus” were never actually tested because tests were not available at the time.

All of this doesn’t matter. People are getting sick. Some people are getting very, very sick. And some people are dying. This is not unlike the flu. But the official line is that it is not like the flu. This virus is much more virulent; we don’t know enough about it, it spreads faster, it affects more parts of the body, good treatments are not available, there is no vaccine. And here’s one of the “brilliant observations” I mentioned earlier: arguing about whether it’s like the flu or not is just kind of silly. Let the medical people figure that out. And let the medical people figure out the best treatments and let them create a vaccine in due time. If I’m sitting here on the River arguing on line with a very kind poet lady from Petaluma, CA about whether the University of Sacramento’s study on hot spots is better than the University of Michigan’s, I’m doing nothing good at all. We should be talking about what a fine poem she just wrote. We can commiserate on the terrible nature of this disease. We can offer sympathy to each other for the personal losses we have experienced during this crisis or others. We can even offer each other suggestions on how to deal with the loneliness of quarantine. But arguing about statistics won’t help either of us and our arguments very well could be based on opinions derived from lack of expertise.

I know a couple of people who are actually doing the hard research. They study the studies, they read the deep journals, they compare, check sources, understand science and know how to apply filters to all this information. And they are very cautious when they speak on what they’ve learned. They also don’t argue with angry voices. One of my friends has done a whole lot of research and he has also listened to nearly every briefing put out by the White House, the CDC, several state Governors, FEMA and even the Public Health Agency in Canada. He told me, quietly, that it would be better to listen only to the people directly involved in the sciences of epidemiology, virology, internal medicine and general health care. He advised me to stay away from politicians and the politically motivated, pollsters, commercial news sources and statisticians. Another friend out in California (which seems to be a test lab for societal problems) also watches daily briefings and pays close attention to the numbers, pointing out discrepancy after discrepancy in an excellent, near daily recap. He’s a calm and reasonable fellow but his increasing frustration reflects the chaos he observes.   

And, of course, don’t look for much good, solid information on social media. For every accurate, reasonable, fact-checked piece on Facebook you’ll find hundreds of bits of foolishness and fantasy. Social media is fine for many entertaining things but it’s not the place to learn science and medicine. Enjoy the funny skits, excellent musical postings and friendly banter from relatives and acquaintances. Just don’t rely on social media for answers to important questions.

I need to bring in some more firewood for the wood stove now. And I think I’ll read some poetry. A friend sent me a volume of James Wright’s work and that will require enough concentration to effectively distract me from all this statistical business. Hope you all have a fine day in your varying degrees of isolation.

Some Thoughts on Pandemic Panic

Some Thoughts on Pandemic Panic

By Jim Bourey

Pandemic panic still moves on like an out of control stagecoach in an old western movie. Naively, I thought it would subside after a week or so. The medical response folks were cranking things up with people making plans, assessing their supply situation, asking for help from the government. At first it seemed like people in high places were going to make a quick response to the needs. But political squabbling got in the way and it took the better part of a month to get that aid package done. Meanwhile, some parts of the government did what they could and, if we do a little research, we can see that it was considerable. Some of my friends have done the research. They have checked in medical news sources. They checked with the data collectors – including those who are independent. They checked with world-wide health organizations. And the findings are (not reported in our more hysteria driven media) that we are meeting the challenge here in the US.

But the panic continues. Food supplies are still good except for a few odd sections of the supermarkets. Shortages can mostly be blamed on continued hoarding during this alert status. Truckers are out doing their jobs. Food production folks are working. Farmers are working. Essential service people are doing their essential things. And thank goodness for all those terrific health care people who are still treating things like heart disease, cancer and most everything else while they battle this flu-like attack. Fire companies, police departments and the military are all geared up to provide protection and support where it is needed. Even the media, in all it’s doom-saying glory, is out there freely disseminating a huge amount of information twenty-four hours a day. And let’s not forget the entertainment sector as it fills screens across the land. We could be in a TV and game playing stupor all the time if we chose to. And yes, some do choose that option.

We know all of these things. Yet folks are still in a panic. Some politicians seem to work pretty hard at driving the feeling. I’m not accusing them of doing it nefariously but there aren’t many voices of reason being heard. Top directing officials make plans, announce them, provide data backing their decisions and recommendations then get hammered within minutes with a barrage of disparaging, contentious comments and tweets and “special reports.” It would seem that there is no inclination to wait and see if they’re right. Nope. Self-appointed “experts” start shouting before the last syllables are out of the mouths of people who are actually doing the work of dealing with the problems.

And there are problems. I’ve been alive over seventy years. I’ve seen crisis after crisis. Polio was a big scare when I was a kid. Meningitis. The Cold War, the Cuban missile crisis, Vietnam, gasoline shortages, several epidemics and threatened epidemics including swine flu, SARS, opioid escalation, 911. It seems like every year we face something. There may be an initial panic period. But it usually dissipates pretty quickly. This time the panic seems to be hanging on for a long time. I’ve been trying to figure out why. Some blame social media. Others blame the ineptitude of the president. He’s an easy target, always saying foolish things that need to be explained or walked back by his more rational team members. And there are rational folks on his team. His medical advisers are smart and qualified. His Surgeon General is a reasonable and diligent person. A few of his other advisers have a handle on the issues. But for some reason, political I suspect, they are not given any positive coverage. Blatant insults, antagonistic questioning, lack of willingness to wait for results are the reactions to these people who are working so hard to deal with these issues.

The politics of disease containment is something I didn’t expect to see in my lifetime. But we have it. And it’s been around at least since the HIV/AIDS crisis. We are slow learners, I guess.

Using a medical crisis in the unending games of politics is just wrong. But it’s not going to stop anytime soon.

So, we go on. We try to use our common sense, though many don’t seem to have that resource available. We minimize contacts with other folks. We pay attention to our physical condition, go outside and walk where we can, eat properly. And we should be careful to get our news and information from the less agitated sources. Check out the information you read. It’s actually possible with the amazing capabilities of the internet – though it isn’t always easy. Stay in touch with your family and friends. But ignore a whole lot of the crap you scroll across on social media. Lots of unbalanced opinion is on there disguised as reality. Be patient. Let things work. Have a little faith. And have a fine day.